I’ve taken some suggestions from the comments received on the last one and amended to the following table:
- I’ve removed the month detail so it’s less cluttered a wall of numbers and reduced things to their whole year totals / averages
- I’ve included a normalised value for age which is its ratio to the life expectancy in the USA for the year. I understand that the deaths are global, but this seemed a simpler proxy
- I’ve included a normalised value for the death count relative to the population of the world for that year.
I was curious to see whether 2016 was really as bad as it felt in terms of notable deaths and created a heat-map of notable births, deaths, and average ages of deaths as indicated on Wikipedia’s various year pages from 1900 to 2016.
I combined income and height distributions to the marital status data from the last post to create a filter to estimate how many unmarried men exist in Hong Kong that satisfy age, income, and height criteria. Please don’t rip into me too hard, I don’t by any means assume this is an actual, exhaustive list of filters a woman would use for evaluating men. It’s just for fun.
How to Use:
Due to how census data brackets ages and income, you have to select from the drop down menu the minimum and maximums for age and monthly income.
I pretended height was approximately normally distributed and just used some mean and standard deviation online – you can enter any number for this field.
Anyway, the bottom result is the joint probability of height and income filters applied to the subset of single men in the age range. So it’s:
(# of single men in age range) * (% of people in income range) * (% of men in height range)
Number of single males in HK that satisfy the specified age, income, and height criteria
Big caveat: there’s a lot of reason to believe that some of this data is not independent. Higher salaries will probably correlate with higher ages, even height is said to correlate with higher income. I’m not really going to delve into those depths. I treated them as independent. Again, it’s just for fun.
Also, I decide to throw in the figure for single women of an age less than the maximum male age stated (and above the age of 20) just for reference. Again, I know height, income, and the man being older aren’t set in stone rules for dating, but they are at least joked about as conditions.
There was a funny exchange that went on last week regarding an article written by Alan Lee on EJ Insight titled “Hey sisters, get real or die alone”. It drew a few responses due to its general sexist tone, most notably by an article by Laurel Chor at HK Coconuts. While the original article from EJ Insight seems have been taken down, the HK coconuts page preserved much of the hilarity, particularly with a few snapshots of FB comments in which the Alan tries to defend his original article along with himself.
Anyway, I’m not here to take a side on that little drama, I’m here to comment on some numbers brought up by Alan’s original article:
“the proportion of women to men in the city was at 1000:856 last year, compared with 1000:904 in 2013.”
I gave the 2015 census data a quick check and got the following numbers:
Or roughly, 1000:852 🇭🇰 women to men. Seems close enough.
The thing is though, that ratio is for all of Hong Kong’s entire population, at every age range.
The first way this skews the data is that women naturally live longer than men, thus the population at the older brackets will be weighted heavily female even though I don’t think that this segment is particularly relevant for examining the dating and marriage market.
We should probably further narrow to exclude people under 20. While 18 probably should be added to the pool, the data is cut into buckets of 5 years; I figured I definitely wanted to exclude 15 year olds from the dating pool that goes all the way up to 39.
All in all, I confined the population to be examined to be between the ages of 20 and 39 (I don’t mean to offend anyone outside this range, it’s kind of a line drawn in the sand by the original article).
When we confine to this population, we get the following split:
Male (aged 20 – 39): 903,000
Female (aged 20 – 39): 1,195,400
Ouch. That looks even worse. That’s a female to male ratio of 1000:756
Here’s where it turns around though.
That’s just the raw population counts, if we look at the marriage numbers for that same range, we have:
Married Males (aged 20 – 39): 292,400
Married Females (aged 20 – 39): 543,400
A lot of females have been taken out of the population. This yields an implied single count of:
Single Males (aged 20 – 39): 611,100
Single Females (aged 20 – 39): 652,000
1,000:937 single females to single males. Not as bad right? That’s still 40,900 females hanging though. Will it get worse? Let’s try and guess…
New singles in the 20 – 39 range don’t often come out of the blue, a lot of them come from… people in the 10-19 age bracket. What does that look like? Well, it’s a lot more Male heavy.
(This next part is a caution to guys in their late 20s and early 30s thinking they will wait 5 years and catch a young 20 something girl.)
The 10 – 19 age range is:
While not a terribly earth shattering shift on it’s own, sliding the population table 10 years (ignoring immigration) and taking into account very negligible mortality differences at this point, we get this ratio:
Year 2025: (20 – 39 year old) Female to Male Ratio – 1,000:940
Just as a reminder:
Year 2015: (20 – 39 year old) Female to Male Ratio – 1,000:756
2025 is looking way better for the females. What’s more tilting though is that if we keep the current percentage of singles for each gender-age category constant and reapply it to this new aged population in 2025 (remembering that large proportions of men stay single in this age range), we get the following ratio:
Year 2026 [20 – 39 years old, Unmarried] Male to Female Ratio
1,000 Female : Male 1,160
Not to detract from that punch line, but if men really are the “fine wines” that remain eligible until the 40s. I really should be including the single men at the 40-49 bracket in this, further heightening competition amongst the men for limited women.
Despite all that though, can anyone really get complacent with those numbers? Men in this decade or women in the next? Our individual lives aren’t statistics. It’s not like dating is ranking and matching the entire population of singles until you run out of one gender. You don’t get a date as the shittiest of 600,000 just because the other gender has 600,001.
Surely at this point I get my 3 column tiling…